Despite their struggles at times this season, Wolverhampton Wanderers have been fairly consistent in front of goal. They currently sit in the middle of the pack when it comes to goals scored in the Premier League, and their 51 strikes is more than seven clubs.
According to Understat, the Old Gold have massively overachieved in their expected goals tally this term.
The metric currently has Vitor Pereira’s side at 42.83 xG, meaning they have scored 8.17 more goals than they should have. It is also the biggest overachievement on expected goals this season by any Premier League club, and by some distance.
If there is one man who has helped them to overperform so much, it is undoubtedly Mathues Cunha.
Cunha's form this season and his Wolves future
It has been yet another unbelievable campaign for Old Gold talisman Cunha. Their number 10 has been sensational for the second consecutive year, helping to keep them in the Premier League and dragging the club through tough times on the pitch around Christmas.
The 25-year-old, who is an Olympic Gold medalist with Brazil, has bagged 15 goals and managed six assists in 31 Premier League games this season. His 17 goals in all competitions are the club’s most, with Jorgen Strand Larsen the only other player in double figures.
He has put in some excellent performances, including one goal and two assists against Leicester City just weeks ago. However, perhaps his most significant was a goal and an assist against Manchester United in December, in a 2-0 win at Molineux.
However, the Old Gold forward, who has become a star at Molineux over the last two seasons, may not be able to call himself a Wolves player much longer.
A few days ago, Fabrizio Romano reported that ‘talks remain ongoing’ for Manchester United to sign him this summer, who explained ‘deal remains at advanced stages’, which suggests it will be done soon enough.
It does not appear that Cunha will stay at Wolves beyond this season, so they will need to replace his goals. They have recently been linked with someone who could do just that.
Wolves' ideal Cunha replacement
If Cunha does love Molinuex, which does seem likely at this stage, then a shock move for Atletico Madrid striker Alexander Sorloth, who has previously played in the Premier League for Crystal Palace, could be on the cards for Wolves.
Caught Offside reported earlier this week that he is ‘attracting interest from the Premier League’, with Wolves, West Ham United, Newcastle United and Aston Villa all linked with a move. The price is not clear at this stage, but he cost the Spaniards £27m last season, so it could well be around the same number.
If the Old Gold are looking for someone to help them forget about losing Cunha, Sorloth could be that guy.
He has been excellent for Atleti in 2024/25, scoring 17 goals and grabbing two assists in 32 appearances. Earlier in the season, Dougie Critchley described him as “sensational”, and it is easy to see why.
The Norwegian made headlines recently for scoring an incredible four goals in 30 minutes in Atleti’s 4-0 La Liga win over Real Sociedad. After just 11 minutes, he already had a hat-trick, in one of the most eye-catching performances of the season.
It is for reasons like that, as to why Sorloth could be the perfect man to step into Cunha’s shoes. There are stats, via FBref, which suggest he can take on the mantle of scoring consistent goals for the Old Gold.
For example, he averages 1.09 goals and 0.55 goals per shot on target per 90 minutes. Comparatively, Cunha averages 0.54 goals and 0.37 goals per shot on target each game.
Goals
1.09
0.54
Shot on target %
45.3%
41.4%
Goals per shot
0.25
0.15
Goals per shot on target
0.55
0.37
Expected goals
0.81xG
0.29xG
Earlier, Wolves’ overachievement on expected goals was referenced, and that is certainly something that stands out for Sorloth. He is overachieving on expected goals by 0.28 per game this season, showing that he, too, can help maintain such a record.
There is no doubt about it, Cunha would be a big loss for the Old Gold. However, replacing him with such a clinical player like Sorloth, who can maintain such an impressive goal scoring rate, would be excellent business.
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