Third Quarter: Rivalry Week Primer, Part I Hatred Plus High Stakes
The major rivalry tussles that have more than just bragging rights on the line. They will affect who makes the College Football Playoff, and/or what order:
Ohio State–Michigan (21)
When: Noon ET Saturday. Where: Ann Arbor, Mich. Series history: Michigan leads, 62–52–6. Lately: The Wolverines have won four in a row. You may have heard about it. Hate scale: Five out of five. Things escalated (up or down, depending on your point of view) with a postgame flag plant-brawl-pepper spraying last year.
The stakes: The undefeated Buckeyes are trying to lock up a spot in the Big Ten championship game, a first-round playoff bye and their first undefeated regular season since 2019 (no, 2020 doesn’t count). The Wolverines (9–2) are trying to backdoor into the Big Ten title game and the playoff bracket, while further tormenting Ryan Day.
Line: Ohio State by 9½.
Dash pick: Ohio State 23, Michigan 10. This pick presumes that Jeremiah Smith returns to the lineup for the Buckeyes, and Carnell Tate, too. It also presumes that Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will make this game a read-and-react trial by fire for Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. But it mostly presumes that winning the national title has freed Day to approach this game without paralyzing monomania.
Texas A&M–Texas (22)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET Friday. Where: Austin. Series history: Texas leads, 77–37–5. Lately: Longhorns won last year in College Station, Texas, in the first meeting since 2011, before the Aggies jumped to the SEC. Hate scale: Five out of five. Texas A&M essentially left the Big 12 due to dislike of Texas, and the two have arms raced each other to the top of football spending nationally.
The stakes: A&M is playing to likely lock up a first-round playoff bye and make its first trip to the SEC title game, while going 12–0 for the first time since 1992. Burying Texas’s playoff hopes along the way would be an added bonus. The Longhorns (8–3) are trying to rectify a disappointing season by scoring a major victory that could vault them back into the bracket, depending what happens elsewhere.
Line: Texas A&M by 2½.
Dash pick: Texas A&M 20, Texas 17. The Aggies are better across the board offensively, and the Horns’ lack of running game plays into the hands of a fierce pass rush and the nation’s best third-down defense.
Egg Bowl (23), Mississippi–Mississippi State
When: Noon ET Friday. Where: Starkville, Miss. Series history: Mississippi leads, 66–49–6. Lately: Ole Miss has won two in a row, four of the last five, and has not lost in Starkville since 2019. Hate scale: Five out of five. There is no rivalry in America steeped in more bitterness with less usually riding on it.
The stakes: This year, plenty is riding on it. As documented in the Second Quarter, the Rebels are trying to secure their first playoff berth amid a cacophony of outside noise, while wondering whether their coach is staying or going. The Bulldogs are playing for bowl eligibility, and of course the chance to wound the Rebels deeply.
Line: Ole Miss by 6½.
Dash pick: Mississippi 35, Mississippi State 24. If Kiffin can stay out of his own head, the path to victory is simple. Run the ball, Lane. The Bulldogs are last in the SEC by a wide margin in rushing defense. The Rebels have run it the third-most times of anyone in the SEC in league games. Pound the rock, control the clock, get out with a win and then let the career chips fall where they may.
Iron Bowl (24), Alabama-Auburn
When: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Where: Auburn. Series history: Alabama leads, 51–37–1. Lately: The Crimson Tide have won five in a row, but it’s been a struggle in Jordan-Hare Stadium for more than a decade. The Tigers scored upset wins at home in 2013, ’17 and ’19, and came remarkably close to two other shockers in ’21 and ’23. Hate scale: Five out of five. C’mon, man.
The stakes: Alabama is trying to lock up a playoff bid and an SEC championship spot. Auburn is playing for bowl eligibility, but really just for the chance to stick a shiv in the ribs of the Tide.
Line: Alabama by 6½.
Dash pick: Alabama 23, Auburn 22. Things just get weird when these two play on The Plains. Ty Simpson hasn’t been great the last four weeks for the Tide, and the Tigers’ pass defense has been good against anyone not named Diego Pavia. Throw out the records and expect this to go down to the wire.
Virginia Tech–Virginia (25)
When: 7 p.m. ET Saturday. Where: Charlottesville, Va. Series history: Virginia Tech leads, 62–38–5. Lately: Tech has had near-total ownership, winning four straight and 19 of the last 20. Hate scale: Three out of five. Some actual football fervor is necessary to have a heated rivalry, and the Cavaliers have been notably lacking in that area. Maybe this year, with so much on the line, this ticks up to a four rating.
The stakes: Virginia (9–2) is trying to advance to the ACC championship game for just the second time, which would give the Cavaliers a shot at their first-ever playoff bid. They’re also trying to win 10 games for the first time since 1989. Tech (3–8), which has won once since September, is living for the schadenfreude and waiting for James Franklin to stir it up.
Line: Virginia by 10½.
Dash pick: Virginia 31, Virginia Tech 24. The Cavaliers have played six one-score games this season, winning four, and it feels like they’ll need to survive one more close call to get to Charlotte. But as long as QB Chandler Morris avoids forcing the ball into trouble, Virginia should be O.K.
Vanderbilt-Tennessee (26)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Where: Knoxville, Tenn. Series history: Tennessee leads, 81–33–5. Lately: Volunteers have won six straight, none of them close, after losing three in a row from 2016 to ’18. Hate scale: Three out of five, and only in Davidson County. There just hasn’t been sufficient competitiveness to crank up the nasty, although Pavia’s swagger has turnt things up a notch.
The stakes: Vandy needs a win to potentially crash the bracket, although even then nothing is assured. The Commodores are also gunning for their first 10-win season ever. Tennessee is simply trying to quell a rebellion and remain the only team from the Volunteer State to go to the playoff.
Line: Tennessee by 2½.
Dash pick: Vanderbilt 38, Tennessee 37. This is a matchup of two vulnerable pass defenses that rank 14th (Vols) and 15th (Dores) in efficiency in the SEC. So if it’s going to be a shootout, The Dash is going with the hottest QB in the country in Pavia.
Oregon-Washington (27)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Where: Seattle. Series history: Washington leads, 63-49-5. Lately: Pretty level. The Ducks won last year, the Huskies won the previous three and the last 10 are split evenly. Hate scale: Three out of five. Nobody hates anything that much in the PNW, but these two programs have sparred at various points when both have performed at a high level.
The stakes: Oregon is probably already in the playoff, but winning this would guarantee it—as well as locking down a first-round home game. The Huskies are playing to defend home turf, where they have won 25 of the last 26.
Line: Oregon by 6½.
Dash pick: Oregon 24, Washington 19. Behind Heisman Trophy front-runners Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza, the Ducks’ Dante Moore and Huskies’ Demond Williams Jr. have been the next-most efficient quarterbacks in the Big Ten. Which one has the best day Saturday could decide who wins.
Indiana-Purdue (28)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET Friday. Where: West Lafayette, Ind. Series history: Purdue leads, 77–43–6. Lately: The Hoosiers won in a savage rout last year, but the Boilermakers had won the previous three and five of the last seven. Hate scale: In football? Three out of five. In basketball? Five out of five. On general principle? Four out of five. Curt Cignetti did his part by declaring shortly after he was hired that “Purdue sucks.”
The stakes: Indiana is trying to cap its first 12–0 season and lock up a first-round CFP bye. Purdue (2–9) is trying to end a 17-game Big Ten losing streak by scoring the biggest upset of the season, anywhere.
Line: Indiana by 28½.
Dash pick: Indiana 31, Purdue 10. With Barry Odom at least resurrecting some pride at Purdue, this won’t be the merciless beatdown of last year (66–0). And maybe the expected cold weather plays an equalizing factor. But Indiana should still secure the Old Oaken Bucket without any major stress.
Georgia–Georgia Tech (29)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET Friday. Where: Atlanta, but not on Tech’s campus. This game will be at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Series history: Georgia leads, 72–41–5. Lately: The Bulldogs have won seven straight. Kirby Smart lost his first game against Tech, and none since. Hate scale: Three out of five. columnist Lewis Grizzard coined the term “Good, Old-Fashioned Hate” for this rivalry, but Tech hasn’t upheld its part of the deal this century.
The stakes: Both teams do have playoff aspirations, although Tech’s are on life support now. Georgia is probably in regardless of the outcome here, but would lock up at least a first-round home game while still aspiring to a first-round bye. The Yellow Jackets need a landmark win to finish 10–2, then hope for mayhem elsewhere.
Line: Georgia by 13.
Dash pick: Georgia 42, Georgia Tech 24. The Yellow Jackets don’t submit easily, but their defense has collapsed. And the Bulldogs have been playing at a very high level the last few weeks.
The Big 12 is essentially sitting this rivalry week out, with only Arizona–Arizona State (30) as a game that would apply. Farmageddon (Iowa State–Kansas State) was played in Ireland to open the season way back in August. The Holy War (Utah-BYU) and the Sunflower Showdown (Kansas–Kansas State) were both in October. Bedlam is deadlam.
The league needs to schedule its few existing rivalries more strategically while ginning up some new ones.
