For the second straight week, the Road to 272 Bets finished at .500. With a push on Titans -3, we finished Week 9 with a 7-7-1 record for -0.5 units. While another losing week isn't ideal, the good news is we're still profitable for the season at 72-65-2 (+1.61 units). Remember, the goal of betting on every single regular season game is to finish the season in the green, even if it's just a unit or two. With that in mind, we're still on track.
We're halfway through the NFL season so it's time to march on to Week 10. The Browns, Packers, Raiders, and Seahawks are on BYE this week so we have just 14 games to bet on.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.
As always, I'll follow the rules and guidelines that I laid out before the opening week. It's time to dive into my best bet for every single Week 10 game.
NFL Week 10 Bets for Every GameBengals vs. Ravens Prediction
It's hard to lay this many points on a Ravens team whose secondary has been horrific this season. They're currently allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt while ranking 29th in opponent dropback EPA and 23rd in opponent dropback success rate.
That's bad news for them considering they're now going to face one of the most potent pass attacks in the NFL in the Bengals, especially if they get a healthy Tee Higgins this week. Cincinnati's offense ranks fourth in dropback EPA and third in dropback success rate.
These two teams played in a 41-38 overtime shootout in Week 5 and I expect a similar result in the rematch on Thursday night, which is why I think there's plenty of value on the Bengals to win as +220 underdogs.
Giants vs. Panthers Prediction
Don't let last week's result fool you into thinking the Panthers have figured something out. Carolina is still the worst team in the NFL, ranking 30th in EPA per play and 32nd in opponent EPA per play. Despite beating the Saints, the Panthers were still significantly outgained throughout the game, 5.8 yards per play to 4.9 yards per play.
The Giants have a lot of issues themselves, but they can run the ball successfully and Carolina has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.
It's also worth noting that for one reason or another, Daniel Jones has been significantly better when playing on the road in his career. His quarterback rating improves from 78.9 at home to 91.2 on the road.
Patriots vs. Bears Prediction
The Patriots and Bears have two of the worst offenses in the NFL when it comes to moving the ball down the field, ranking 30th and 31st in yards per play. They also rank 25th and 31st in third down conversion rate, struggling to keep offensive drives alive.
Defensively, the Bears have been one of the best units in the NFL this season, especially their secondary. They also rank eighth in opponent third-down conversion rate and third in red zone defense.
It's hard to trust either offense in this matchup, which makes the obvious bet the UNDER with the total set at 39.5.
Vikings vs. Jaguars Prediction
We're keeping this bet simple, there's no reason to overthink it. This is a game between one of the best defenses in the NFL and one of the worst. In fact, when it comes to opponent EPA per play, the Vikings enter this week second in the NFL while the Jaguars rank dead last.
If you think you should bet on the Jaguars because of their offense, think again. While the margin may not be as wide as it is between the two defenses, the Vikings are 14th in EPA per play and Jacksonville comes in at 17th.
If you want one more metric thrown at you, the Vikings are sixth in Net Yards per Play (+0.5) this season while the Jaguars are 23rd (-0.4). I simply don't see how or why Minnesota is just a four-point favorite in this interconference showdown.
Steelers vs. Commanders Prediction
In a game between two teams who I believe are overperforming this season, I'm going to take the UNDER. There has been a repeated belief, one which I've admittedly fallen for, that the Commanders' defense is one of the worst in the NFL when in fact, they've improved throughout the season and rank inside the top 15 in most metrics since Week 6. The total in this game indicates their defense is still a bottom-10 unit and I don't think that's true any longer.
Offensively, Washington is going to see some regression. They have only played one team this season whose defense ranks inside the top 15 in EPA. That team was the Bears and the Commanders were only able to score 18 points, their fewest of the season. Now, they play the Steelers who are sixth in opponent EPA per play and 10th in opponent success rate.
I think we're going to see more of a defensive battle than people expect. Give me the UNDER.
Bills vs. Colts Prediction
The Colts are a much different team with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Even in last week's loss to the Vikings, they still looked like a more diverse offense with Flacco's ability to throw the ball.
This week, they host the Bills, who have had some issues when playing on the road this season. The Bills have a Net Yards per Play of -0.7 away from home this season. Their average scoring margin also drops from +17.5 to +3.4.
If the Colts can run the ball successfully, which they should be able to do against a defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry, they can stay in this game and cover the spread as home underdogs.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction
The Chiefs haven't played nearly well enough this season to justify a 9.5-point spread. They've been favorites of 10 points and nine points the past two weeks and failed to cover in both. Last week against the Bucs, they were outgained 5.5 yards to 4.6 but managed to win in overtime. Winning games that could have gone either way has been a theme in Chiefs games this season, so you'd be a brave bettor to bet on them to win by double digits.
Despite being on the wrong end of a blowout last week, the Broncos still have one of the best defenses in the NFL and have been able to exceed expectations this season. They come into this game with a better Net Yards per Play ranking than the Chiefs, ranking 14th at +0.3.
There is nothing about this game that makes me think a 9.5-point spread is warranted.
Falcons vs. Saints Prediction
The Saints have officially imploded. They fired Dennis Allen this week and their best receiver is in concussion protocol. On top of that, they are allowing the second most yards per play this season, giving up 6.0 yards per snap. I don't know what they have to compete with Atlanta with their coach fired, their best offensive weapon sidelined, and their defense posting abysmal performances week after week.
The Falcons may have addressed their two most glaring issues; their third down defense and pass rush. They kept the Cowboys to converting just 23.08% of third downs last week while also managing to record three sacks. Those issues aren't yet completely fixed, especially their pass rush, but it's promising to see significant improvements in those areas.
The Falcons are too much for the Saints to handle in Week 10. Atlanta will moved to 5-0 in the NFC South this season.
49ers vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The 49ers have had plenty of things go against them this season, but at 4-4, they still head into Week 10 off their BYE week ranking second in the NFL in Net Yards per Play. Now, they're expected to get the reigning Offensive Player of the Year, Christian McCaffrey, back in their lineup.
They should get a favorable matchup against the Buccaneers off a short week. Injuries are piling up for Tampa Bay and relying on running the football and throwing double-digit targets to Cade Otton can only take them so far, especially with a defense that has been abysmal at times this season.
I'm willing to bet on the 49ers running away with this one.
Titans vs. Chargers Prediction
We're not betting on just one big underdog this week, we're betting on two! Add the Titans are north of 3-1 odds to the ticket.
The Chargers defense has been the difference in many of their wins this season, but the Titans can match them on that side of the football. The Chargers are second in the NFL in opponent success rate but the Titans are right behind them at third. Tennessee also allows fewer yards per play at 4.7 compared to 5.1 of Los Angeles. Even more importantly, the Titans lead the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up just 5.4 yards per throw. If their secondary can shut down the Chargers' receivers, they will be live to pull off the upset.
The Titans are only barely behind the Chargers in Net Yards per Play this season. The Chargers are 16th at +0.2 and the Titans are 19th at 0.0.
It's certainly a longshot bet, but if you want to take a chance on a big underdog, there have been few I've liked this season as much as I like the Titans this week.
Jets vs. Cardinals Prediction
I bet on the Jets against the Texans last week because I felt they were a lot better than their record indicates and I still believe that this week when they take on the Cardinals, a team that's in a huge "sell high" spot.
The Cardinals are all offense, no defense. Their defense still ranks 28th in the league in opponent EPA per play, a glaring weakness for them.
Meanwhile, the Jets' secondary remains one of the best in the league, leading the NFL in opponent dropback success rate and third in opponent yards per pass attempt. If the Jets can move the ball offensively while slowing down the Cardinals' pass attack, it's going to be hard for Arizona to win this game.
Eagles vs. Cowboys Prediction
The Cowboys have been a bottom-10 team in just about every single metric you can find this season and now with Dak Prescott, they're only going to be worse. Their defense ranks 30th in opponent EPA per play with only the Panthers and Jaguars ranking worse, while the Eagles' defense continues to get better week in and week out.
Not only has the Cowboys' defense been bad overall, but their run defense has simply been the worst in the NFL. That's bad news now that they face one of the most potent rush attacks in the league in the Eagles.
Philadelphia will run away with this game, but literally and metaphorically. The Cowboys will have no answers for the Eagles on either side of the football.
Lions vs. Texans Prediction
I'm shocked the total for this game is as high as it is. While defense isn't the first thing you think of when think of the Lions and Texans, they have been two of the better defenses in the league. Heading into this week, the Lions rank fifth and eighth in opponent EPA while the Texans also lead the NFL in opponent success rate.
The Lions' defense has quietly been the best in the NFL over the past handful of weeks. Since Week 6, they lead the NFL in opponent EPA per play and come in at fourth in opponent success rate.
No game involving two defenses as good as these two should have a total set at 49.0. I'll take the UNDER in what might just be my favorite bet of the week.
Dolphins vs. Rams Prediction
Remember when the Rams went 7-1 in their final eight games after their BYE week last season? Well, we could be seeing the start of a similar run. Not only have they won three straight games off their BYE, but their metrics have significantly improved across the board.
While the offense improvement with a healthy Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua is expected, it's been the improvements on defense that have been just as impressive. From Weeks 1-6, the Rams ranked 31st in the NFL in opponent EPA per play. Since returning from their BYE, their defense has ranked second in opponent EPA per play.
All the signs are there that now is the time to invest in the Rams and I'm going to do so by betting on them to win and cover at home against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football.
